Board of Trustees Professor in Economics and Faculty Fellow at the Institute for Policy Research at Northwestern University National Academy of Sciences ~ British Academy ~ National Research Council ~ Econometric Society ~ American Academy of Arts and Sciences ~ American Association for the Advancement of Science ~ Distinguished Fellow, American Economics Association

Publications


Some Autobiographical Reflections: Unlearning and Discovery


NEW BOOK: Patient Care under Uncertainty, Princeton University Press, 2019.


Forthcoming Articles


Tuberculosis Diagnosis and Treatment under Uncertainty, with Rachel Cassidy, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Predicting Kidney Transplant Outcomes with Partial Knowledge of HLA Mismatch, with Anat Tambur and Michael Gmeiner, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Judicial and Clinical Decision Making under Uncertainty, Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics

The Lure of Incredible Certitude, Economics and Philosophy

Towards Credible Patient-Centered Meta-Analysis, Epidemiology


Public Statements on Science in the Federal Government


Policy Analysis in a Post-Truth World, VOX, December 24, 2016

Trump Administration’s Attacks on Science Are Taking a Grim Toll, with B. Santer and R. Weymann, The Mercury News, January 3, 2018

Speaking Science to Power, with B. Santer and R. Weymann, Scientific American, April 23, 2018

STATEMENT TO RESTORE SCIENCE-BASED POLICY IN GOVERNMENT, By Concerned Members of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, April 2018

Communicating Uncertainty in Policy Analysis, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019


Working Papers


Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from survey response on late-onset dementia, with Pamela Giustinelli and Francesca Molinari

Statistical Inference for Statistical Decisions

Minimax-Regret Sample Design in Anticipation of Missing Data, with Application to Panel Data, with Jeff Dominitz

Tail and Center Rounding of Probabilistic Expectations in the Health and Retirement Study, with Pamela Giustinelli and Francesca Molinari

The Quantile Performance of Statistical Treatment Rules Using Hypothesis Tests to Allocate a Population to Two Treatments, with Aleksey Tetenov


Links to Books


C. Manski, Patient Care under Uncertainty, Princeton University Press, 2019.

C. Manski, Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions, Harvard University Press, 2013
C. Manski, Identification for Prediction and Decision, Harvard University Press, 2007

C. Manski, Social Choice with Partial Knowledge of Treatment Response, Princeton University Press, 2005.

C. Manski, Partial Identification of Probability Distributions, Springer-Verlag, 2003

C. Manski, J. Pepper, and C. Petrie (editors), Informing America's Policy on Illegal Drugs: What We Don't Know Keeps Hurting Us, National Academy Press, 2001 (book can be read online)

B. Fischhoff and C. Manski (editors), Elicitation of Preferences, Kluwer, 2000

C. Manski, Identification Problems in the Social Sciences, Harvard, 1995

C. Manski and I. Garfinkel (editors), Evaluating Welfare and Training Programs, Harvard, 1992

C. Manski, Analog Estimation Methods in Econometrics, Chapman & Hall, 1988
(out-of-print book can be downloaded for private use)

C. Manski and D. Wise College Choice in America, Harvard, 1983

C. Manski and D. McFadden (editors), Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications, MIT Press, 1981 (out-of-print book can be downloaded for private use)

Samuil Manski, With God’s Help, 1990 (book can be downloaded for private use)


Courses


Economics 480-1, Introduction to Econometrics, Fall 2019 (first-year Ph.D. course), past examinations


The Survey of Economic Expectations


SEE Introduction
SEE Data and Codebooks